I remain bullish above $36 long term on oil (WTI). Policies have to appease these people who are politically indifferent. I’d argue that a mid term hold of 1.45 and you could hold GBP and keep adding to a very long term position. It’s not some shady cabal of blokes sitting in a dark ex-monastery, plotting which way to send the markets next. But that is irrelevant in a world were the Fed are so adamantly shedding their own holdings of the US government’s debt, which is the main reason as to why yields have spiked and emerging markets have been under the cosh. I’ve seen so many people talk about smart money in hindsight that I reckon we may have actually created a fault in time somewhere along the line. Conversely, the two days following, those shorts were taken out. The ECB, by trying to provide liquidity to the market, are actually creating a huge liquidity issue. It is easier in terms of economic confidence, to lower from $4tn to $2tn than to increase balance sheet holding to $5/6tn when the inevitable occurs. Late October 2017 is when we saw the temporary net long position (green line) start to turn long term net short. Previously, I’d have to determine where the valid zone is that I’d expect a bounce from and then place up to 10 orders across the whole zone. Later today (1.30GMT) sees the release of Q4 GDP data in the U.S. US10YY In firm downtrend, but I think upside yield is capped at 3-3.5%. I find that by looking at a long term chart, you can build a macro reasoning around a trade idea. The reason I say don’t but do, is because it’s best to trade the retrace. The Bank Index has probably reflected this occurrence. PBoC easing was absolutely a direct response to this. If we go back to our yield and dollar index charts, we can see that a broad upside move is not that crazy an idea if it holds that we are going to face a dollar funding problem. Zombie companies have not gone under since their operational costs are kept low through cheap credit and low (but now rising) financial costs and so unemployment stays low… but so does investment. Price ends up bouncing at areas of high volume as there are resting orders, people taking profits and new entrants into the market (trading at higher volume areas, Guestpost: Is the trend really your friend? How has your trading process evolved over the years? But hey, pushing money towards Vanguard is always great right? The broker is just there to collect fees. There is inevitably going to be a liquidity crisis when it comes to wanting to get rid of these bonds. I shall explain in terms of the histogram (volume profile) on the side. Longer term though, the data shows that a fall in the SMI precedes a stock market crash. …apart from the large drop from 20k to the current index price? Why is Trump about to have a huge headache? We have to interpret price as we see it on our trading platforms to have a best guess as to what these guys are doing (well that’s what I do anyway). This coincided with the Fed beginning their aggressive balance sheet shedding policy, and the USD liquidity issues that we see now. The pertinence of this can be shown below. It should be glaringly obvious what happened at these two periods of 1999-2000 and 2007-2008. You’ve heard this before, haven’t you? Why is Trump about to have a huge headache? We have a slight Wyckoff bottoming pattern. I personally think that Trump knows the Fed has created this illusion of a strong economy. On the flip side, the 50% level almost always has a big void of low volume. Why do brokers provide technical analysis? But any fracturing that is apparent will solidify this as a decent bet. For a time, yes. I’d like to thank Charlie hugely for writing this. Enter email to receive updates to your inbox. But what financial journo’s have seemingly forgotten is the motivations for investing in both and the client types that use both vehicles. – buy avocado futures! We were in a downtrend, and got early indications of a change in trend. It’s commonly thought of that an uptrend is defined by a market making both higher highs and high lows. This leads me to believe that the current level is strong to initiate further shorts into. I guess it depends on what the distribution of swing voters are relative to the effect that they can cause is, or in other words, how disenfranchised they are with the current political climate. Non-comms are net short Yen. Arguably, it’s irrelevant as to what your filter is, but I’d say find something that makes it as obvious as possible. But it is well-defined. Remember previously I said that the Aussie is heavily affected by productive demand? Macro Trader & Author of the Macrodesiac Newsletter. The drop off in price from the run up to the 2008 high could have some meaning in this case, especially since before the 2008 crisis we faced USD funding cost issues as well. Enter email to receive updates to your inbox. The slow grind or the fast unwind? Probably what you hear about everything. Smart money: Nonsense, or something to pay attention to? I have noted 1 (early 90s recession), 2 (Asian crisis – yen bid in risk off environment) and 3 (financial crisis of 2008 – again, yen bid in risk off climate). However, this kind of sustained move cannot last forever. Secondly, let’s consider this support structure (middle blue zone) at approximately ¥75. The 2010 low of the range ¥71.91) is still very much intact. China is a huge importer of Aussie copper, gold and iron ore. China is Australia’s best customer with $45bn being exported there annually. Why is Trump about to have a huge headache? This has a vastly different usage to simply being currency, since it is now connected heavily to economic activity of consumers. Today’s “off the wall” (pun intended) trade idea? Q. For this trade I’m just looking at taking some cash and covering the rest of my position that I have running – this is pretty high probability in my view, so I’m confident about changing my stop loss criteria and upping risk to 3%. The dishonesty that many outlets push with this is crazy. A thought came to me just now as to why politicians are so lame.
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