We'll see if that holds over the next few weeks, but right now, Biden is closer in the polling average in Alaska than Trump is in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or Nevada. Missouri: This used to be a traditional battleground state but has has fallen off in the last two election cycles. It's been 144 years since the Electoral College (how we decide our presidents) was last decided by a mere 1 electoral vote. If the historical early polling inaccuracies repeat, and Trump wins at least a quarter of the Latino vote in Arizona, then it will be another easy win for the GOP. © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. It should be noted, however, that Trump remains within striking distance, especially in the Sun Belt states, across the South and West. Does it stay that way? Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. Create your own forecast for the 2020 presidential election Nationwide, Donald Trump won 28% of the Latino vote in 2016, and his numbers with the demographic have only improved over the last four years. The latter has left the fate of the remaining debates in doubt, as the campaigns and commission scramble to figure out how to proceed. Democratic voters are saying by far greater margins than Republicans that they're more likely to vote by mail, rather than in person, because of the coronavirus pandemic. Arizona: This is a closer race than Wisconsin with Biden up 4 points on average. Trump Demands that Barr Investigate Biden; Giuliani Defends Hunter Biden Story; Trump May Be Exhausting the Voters He Needs; Trump Walks Out of 60 Minutes Interview Given all of that, Trump's standing in the NPR electoral map analysis has gotten worse.
We will update our map in a couple of weeks before the election – and things very well may shift and tighten between now and then, as they did in 2016. Watch for quickly narrowing polls in late October. States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. If Biden carries Arizona, odds are he is the next President. It has been a rough couple of weeks for President Trump. We had been reluctant to move it to Lean D, given Wisconsin's high percentage of whites without a college degree, a strongly pro-Trump group. Arizona is the only state that was not in the tossup category already that has shown Biden polling ahead of Trump by at least three points. However, given Arizona's history of the actual vote coming in considerably more Republican than early polling would indicate, the GOP has a strong case to make for once again carrying the state. The Biden campaign is looking to make things interesting, spending $6 million on ads in the state. All of that points to a rising sea level for Biden. The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election. Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight House Forecast, Sabato's Crystal Ball Updates Election Outlook, Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away. Tip: The width in the code can be adjusted to best fit your space. The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election.
September 29, 2020 Long election nights … So why are forecasters hesitant to admit how bad the polling was in 2016? South Carolina, Kansas, Montana: All of these are traditionally red states that Trump won by significant double-digit margins in 2016. Good Morning America. Most recent electoral map forecast for the 2020 presidential election from Politico. His performance in the first presidential debate was widely panned; Trump and several members of his inner circle contracted COVID-19; and then the president said he was pulling out of the next debate, after the debate commission said it wanted the candidates to appear from remote locations, citing safety concerns in the wake of Trump's diagnosis. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. Place the map on your website with this code. If Biden's current three point lead widens, however, it could finally be the flip the Democratic Party has seen on the horizon for the last twenty years. Which way will Arizona break? Florida, at one point this summer, looked as if it was leaning toward Biden, but there is almost no path to reelection for Trump without Florida. Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election. 20/20.
Video. But given Texas' voting history and the GOP's statewide political power, this one still leans toward Trump for now. Trump has got his work cut out for him. The Grand Canyon State invariably gets marked as a swing battleground every cycle, and every cycle it lands comfortably in the GOP's corner. Return here to share it. But Biden's lead has remained consistent, up by 7 points now on average and above 50%. Fueling Biden's lead, according to national and statewide surveys, continues to be the former vice president's overperformance with white voters, suburban voters, independents and seniors, all groups Trump won in 2016. World News Tonight. Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor. Nebraska-1: This district borders the 2nd Congressional District, encompassing the college town of Lincoln and some Omaha suburbs. Of course, Trump was able to do so against Hillary Clinton in 2016, particularly in the Upper Midwest. For this reason, it's been added to the tally of close states in the forecast map.
The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. What's more, Democrats are worried about mail-in voting, not because of fraud, but because of the high rate of disqualification of mail-in ballots because technicalities like not signing in the correct place. But polls have shown it neck and neck, with Biden ahead in some recent surveys. Once again the polling suggests that Democrats will carry the day in Arizona in this year's showdown. To put Biden's lead in context, even if Trump wins all the remaining toss-up states, it would not be enough for him to win. The southeastern Sun Belt states were expected to be very competitive, but Ohio was thought to be trending steadily Republican. It's just on the edge of remaining in the Toss-Up category, but here are a couple of points for why we moved it: (1) Trump hasn't led here since early March and (2) when you look inside the polls, Biden is consistently doing better than Clinton did in Maricopa County, where two-thirds of the state's vote comes from, and he's even ahead of Clinton's margins in Pima County, the traditionally Democratic area where Tucson is. But each of them is within 10 points in the race between Trump and Biden, according to the polls.
Wisconsin: Polls have shown a consistent bent toward Biden this cycle.
Texas: While the polls show a race within the margin of error, Trump has been near or above 50% and leading in the polling average.
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Heard on All Things Considered. Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. Below is a deeper look at what we've changed and what we didn't and why. The ABC News 2020 Electoral Map shows state-by-state votes on the path to win the 2020 Presidential Election. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. The criteria being used for a contested state is that either or both of the following is true: Will Arizona Flip? In 2008, Republican John McCain beat Barack Obama there by just 3,700 votes out of almost 3 million. The forecasters who think Arizona is going blue this year nearly unanimously cite a singular factor: demographics. Hillary Clinton won roughly eight out of ten Latino votes in Arizona in 2016, and the Democrats are hoping that ever-shifting demographics away from "old and White" to "young and Latino" will translate into a blue Arizona. Shows. The key here is if Biden continues to overperform with whites, margins will become tighter in red states and in red counties in swing states. Given all of that, Trump's standing in the NPR electoral map … The president would need to make gains in the next three weeks in states now leaning toward Biden. Biden is unlikely to win places like Alaska, Missouri, Montana and South Carolina, but being more competitive there than Hillary Clinton was in 2016 is putting him on track to surpass Clinton's vote total and popular vote margin of 3 million more than Trump. It comes with less than a month to go in the election — and with millions of votes already cast. All Rights Reserved. Live. Safe is 15% or higher.
Alaska: The tightening margins in these kinds of places are signs of a potential wave.
Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio: These all remain Toss-Ups. "people are motivated by winning, not losing. With states that are determined to be likely to go for either candidate or leaning toward them, Democrat Joe Biden now leads Trump, 290-163. View CNN’s interactive and historic Electoral College maps to explore the votes needed to win the US presidential election.
Nebraska-2: Despite its Republican lean and the Democrat in the district's U.S. House race polling close or behind the GOP incumbent, this Omaha-area district has continued to favor Biden. All election models are simple garbage-in-garbage-out propositions, and an admission that the polls can be garbage is an admission that the forecast might very well be garbage too. That tells you a lot about the landscape and Trump's struggles in the Midwest. Copy Code. It should be a district that goes to Trump easily, but polls have shown the race within 5 points there. ", State had less than a 2.5% difference in the vote between Clinton and Trump in 2016.
Biden is showing strength in the Midwest and is also eating into Trump's margins in traditionally red states. After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. So his campaign doubled down there and the race tightened, though a couple of polls this week have shown Biden opening up a lead again. October 9, 2020 5:01 AM ET. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to see results. To read more about our methodology, as well as several scenarios for potential paths to 270 for each candidate, click here. Here are the moves we've made in this month's map: Wisconsin: Toss-Up —> Lean D Arizona: Toss-Up —> Lean D Nebraska 2nd Congressional District: Toss-Up —> Lean D Iowa: Lean R —> Toss-Up Nebraska 1st Congressional District: Likely R —> Lean RMissouri: Likely R —> Lean RAlaska: Likely R —> Lean R. That puts Biden — right now — above the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win a majority of the 538 available, leaving Trump with an uphill climb to win reelection. So let's see if they move the numbers and where things are in a couple weeks.
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